US entrepreneurs are in the driving seat.
The US election is just under two weeks away but does that matter to stock markets?
Yes, it does as the US stock market is the engine, currently, that drives economic opportunity throughout the globe.
Over 80% of all the transformational technology being called into action on our behalf, originates from US companies.
Biden or Trump
Trump is trailing Biden by around 10% and it looks therefore like he could win.
What will be the effect of him winning?
Three major shifts in policy…
- Renewable energy will be heavily promoted
- Foreign policy will shift to a less aggressive stance
- The pharmaceutical and biochemistry industries will receive a boost
However, even if Biden does win the White House executive team he appoints still has to carry The Senate and The House of Representatives for their policies to be implemented.
So Entrepreneurs rule
This means therefore that whoever wins, the world’s leading US companies will continue to grow and stock markets will, within a week or two, largely ignore the election results.
Meantime…
The UK is on the verge of a deal with Europe but irrespective of what deal is finally done the psychology for the UK is that as an independent nation we can make decisions no longer constrained by European oversight.
That is why we have to leave and emphatically stamp our own values on our own economy. In doing so we release the potential of our population to innovate and create new opportunities which in turn can create new jobs and wealth for the many.
Creative destruction
There can be absolutely no advantages from a terrible disease that has killed so many people but, if there is a silver lining, it is the pace of change that is being forced upon us and the lessons we are learning from it.
These include:
- That when we need to, we can cut through the red tape and mobilise the collective energy of our population to solve the major problems that previously would have taken years to fix.
- That the UK as a nation is leading the research for a solution to this global disease.
- That retail spending habits are forcing us to move online and the “old ways” of large marginally profitable companies selling high volumes of goods, particularly clothing, are over.
- That travel is not always essential for us to work
- That the extra time not spent commuting can impact positively on our health, our calm and our sense of peace.
- That these forced changes are good, and not bad for our environment.
Progress with Brexit
I Predict a three-part answer…
- Immediate separation from Europe as planned with a “thin” agreement on trading terms.
- Further talks on the fine details so we will still feel partly “in” and “out” of Europe for another two or three years and
- Within three years we will have total severance from the EU.
The consequences
- Europe will struggle to make ends meet without our financial contribution
- Other countries in Europe will clamour to leave or, at the very least, to massively regain their sovereignty
- The UK will thrive!
The potential therefore for the growth in our investments? It is still good!
Our next follow up will be post the Biden/Trump election show in early November.
Until then, stay safe