Our September Update – Opportunities still abound!
Please excuse the “radio silence” since early August. It’s been an interesting but distracting period of six weeks with most stock markets tracking sideways but no shortage of contradictions.
We are experiencing an economic period that is almost unparalleled. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has upended conventional investment wisdom.
Our report is in three parts…
- Regional comments
- Sector comments
- Our conclusions
Regional Comments
The UK
Despite the drama of the last few days, the UK’s divorce from the EU calls on us to think and act like a sovereign nation. Irrespective of the howls of protest from the European Union, they will be £13bn a year worse off when we stop paying in.
Sticking my neck out, I believe we must defend the integrity of the UK and redraw any component of the Withdrawal Agreement that allows the EU to control elements of how we function as a sovereign nation.
The economic impact of a no-deal will be far less than the impact of Covid-19, therefore it is a case of negotiating as a sovereign nation and not kowtowing to the EU.
Note they are on their high horse about our right to grant state aid to ailing industries but they have failed to stop France or Germany from doing precisely that. Gross hypocrisy.
The UK can thrive away from the EU.
It will take time but I have more confidence in backing the UK than backing Europe.
Europe
Also suffering because of Covid-19 but the economic issues are deeply rooted in the solvency, or lack of, of the weaker southern nations (Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal) who are being supported by the northern states of Germany, France and Holland.
Will it fail? It could but more to the point the prospects for its economic prosperity are poor.
The cost of a European Union is the huge bills being paid by the profitable nations, thus weakening their finances, whilst the decision making is slowed down through endless centralised committees whose accountability is nil and expenditure profligate.
The USA
The big question is, will Trump be re-elected? If yes, that augurs well for the economy but Biden is wily enough to support free enterprise too.
Whoever wins, the ultimate prize is economic leadership of the global economy and the USA is in pole position.
80% of all the Global Technology businesses migrate from the USA and their dominance is virtually unassailable.
Despite the current ups and downs, the USA will thrive.
China
Does not tell the truth, represses people, and wilfully ignores the hardships it imposes on its citizens. Not an economy to back, but you will find funds that invest in China and they will show a profit. So it’s a case of profits or ethics.
India
Staggering from the impact of Covid-19, a growing economy but on the fringes of what we would describe as our core holdings.
Emerging Markets
Some potential for growth but very dependent on the USA and China.
Sectors to support
These sectors will thrive…
- Technology
- Biotechnology
- Global Brands
- Global Financial Technology
- Green Technology Funds
- Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
- Responsible Ethical funds
Despite the challenges caused by Covid-19 the leading technology brands will thrive.
Sectors to avoid
Commercial Property
The lockdown, which has encouraged the move to online shopping, has caused shops to empty and shopping centres to be increasingly unprofitable. Thus clients owning commercial property funds have found they cannot exit them. Avoid.
Government Gilt Funds
The massive rise in quantitative easing (the creating of new money issued by the Government) means that supply usually exceeds demand and therefore there will be little or no gain in their capital value.
Fixed interest funds
Deposit rates are at nil or close to it and in some cases are actually negative so again the prospects for growth are also nil or close to it.
Corporate Bonds
Issued by companies but all the stronger companies that have positive cash flow, are now awash with money, so do not need to raise funds. Thus these bonds are inevitably issued by weaker companies. Avoid or approach with caution.
Our conclusions
Selecting funds that will grow in the current climate is possible and our selections over the past four years demonstrate that the world is either growing or recovering. Either way, there are shares and funds that respond to the new environment.
Thus we would, in order of preference suggest…
- Well diversified Global funds
- Technology funds
- Artificial Intelligence and Robotics funds
- Clean Energy Green funds
- Global Brands funds
- Financial Technology funds
- USA funds
- Biotechnology funds
Predictions now
- By the end of 2020, the US stock market will reach a new high.
- Technology funds will continue to grow.
- Global Brands fund will continue to grow.
- Artificial Intelligence, Clean Energy and Robotics funds will grow.
- Biotechnology funds will grow.
So reasons to be cheerful?
- The UK will become a sovereign nation once more.
- Careful selections will increase the value of our investments.
- Good quality equities will vastly outpace Fixed Interest, Commercial Property, Government Gilts and Corporate Bond funds.
- We are here to help.