What a difference a month makes

A snapshot of the UK’s situation today, 27th February 2020.

Less than a month ago we commenced our exit from the EU and each day reveals that a government with unity of purpose can enunciate its aims for the country far better than the EU’s 27 member state’s committee can decide what they want

It is foolish to wish ill for the EU but their current budgetary issues and internal disagreements are in stark contrast to the UK’s sole aim of agreeing on trade terms that are sensible for both parties.

The fear of others leaving

Remember the EU has to make it hard for the UK or other nations will follow suit. This alone will ensure that we are given a hard time.

How does the EU make a success of the project for a unified Europe?

It must…

  1. Extend the common currency to all members
  2. Agree to common fiscal and tax policies across the entire EU

This is a “bridge too far” for a number of the members of the EU. In 1999 Nigel Lawson said that without common tax and fiscal rules, the EU is doomed to fail.

The chart below underlines this, it shows adherence or lack of it to common rules already agreed. Green is a “pass”, all others are “fails”

EU Member states budgets and results

You can see that of the 11 Euro members analysed they broke their own rules on 78 out of 110 occasions!

The brilliant Greenwich speech by Boris Johnson, 3rd February 2020

To further underline the impossibility of this system working, in his outstanding speech in Greenwich, Johnson further confirmed that the use of state subsidies, banned by the EU and in direct contradiction to their own rules, has actually occurred frequently.

He informed us that during our membership of the EU we have been cited 4 times for using state subsides which are deemed to be unfair. The French meantime have been cited 29 times, the Italians 45, and the Germans 67!

So much for the level playing field.

Imagine if these breaches were judged using VAR…

If VAR had been applied, the UK would have incurred 4 penalties, France 29, Italy 45 and Germany no less than 67.

So we truly have nothing to fear

The budget on March 11th should be a liberating experience as I am sure that the government wants to stimulate economic growth and nationwide opportunities.

So, the prospects for economic growth

  1. The Coronavirus pandemic will pass
  2. The global economy, just like the UK’s, is unbalanced. Therefore we can expect global companies based in the more advanced countries will pursue a larger share of global markets and therefore globally focussed companies will prosper.
  3. Interest rates will remain low
  4. House prices will rise
  5. The Bank of England will cheer up now that Carney has gone
  6. Sensibly selected investments, in most cases, can deliver returns of 5% to 15% for the balance of 2020
  7. Trump will win again and whatever your reservations about the man, that should be good for the US economy and therefore the world. (Note he is studiously ignoring the USA’s rising deficit).
  8. The Labour Party will contribute nothing to our economic wellbeing. Nor will the Liberal Democrats (who?) and we don’t think it really matters!

So there is all to play for and we recommend you watch this space for Chapter Two of our drama which is entitled “Awaking From Our 47 year Coma”